Mon, 06 Feb 2023

Roundup: CBOT agricultural futures end lower

Xinhua
22 Jan 2023, 14:18 GMT+10

CHICAGO, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures ended lower in the past week without clear bullish or bearish trends.

Traders should be willing to sell strong rallies and buy strong breaks, Chicago-based research company AgResource noted.

CBOT corn futures ended flat. Corn's rally since November has been based on tightening supplies due to the Argentine drought. However, rain has fallen across the country, with several additional showers due in the next two weeks.

In Brazil, safrinha corn seeding is expected to be timely, as planting has already started in the state of Mato Grosso, and soil moisture will be abundant in February and March, AgResource said.

The market will be defined by ongoing elevated competition for world market share as wheat now competes for U.S. feed demand.

U.S. wheat futures ended lower this week as markets worldwide struggle to find bullish momentum.

Funds are heavily short in both U.S. and European futures, and no catalyst is still available to alter money flows. Russia remains aggressive in the world market and will likely ship a seasonal normal 1.5-2.0 million metric tons of supply in January.

Northern Hemisphere weather is improving as areas covered by dryness in the United States and Eastern Europe get smaller. AgResource maintains a strategy of advancing cash sales on recoveries.

However, global supplies could swell in 2023 if Northern Hemisphere weather allows it. The gain in U.S. winter seeding will be offset by losses in the Black Sea, as the conflict in Ukraine will be ongoing, AgResource said.

AgResource's preliminary work keeps major exporter stocks in 2023-2024 unchanged from the current year. A choppy and neutral price trend is most probable into spring and early summer.

Soybean futures marked a new rally high at the start of the week, stopping just short of 15.50 dollars, and then closed the week lower.

Selling during the holiday-shortened week was tied to a smaller-than-expected December crush rate and a favorable weather outlook for Argentina.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a December soybean crush rate of 177.5 million bushels, falling short of expectations of 183 million bushels. Based on data from the association, AgResource estimated that the cumulative U.S. crush rate is 8 million bushels behind last year.

Argentine weather remains wet at the end of the week, and a major easing of drought conditions will occur over the next two weeks.

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